Let’s be real. The coronavirus has long overrun its stay, especially considering that it was never welcomed in the first place. I think most will resonate with me when I say that if COVID-19 manifested itself as a physical entity, I’d gear up and kick it in the a** so that we can all just return to life as per normal. But unfortunately, reality is most times disappointing, and many of us might be feeling dejected at the helplessness of the whole situation.
If you and your friends have been sitting around betting on when the whole pandemic might end, then this new Singaporean Artificial Intelligence (AI) tool might be up your alley. Developed by a group of researchers at the Singapore University of Technology and Design (SUTD), this AI projects the literal flattening of the curve, and when we can expect the virus to be wiped out in a specific country.
The algorithm is put together using AI technology as well as data from Our World in Data, and is able to project the infection curve and generate dates for the virus end date in various countries. A combination of peaks and spikes help make the extrapolation more accurate as it forms a more complete bell curve, as compared to countries that have sporadic or incomplete data. The data involved includes new confirmed cases, new deaths, total confirmed cases, total deaths, as well as population data.
If you recall anything from your stats class back in the day, then the term ‘confidence interval’ might still ring a bell. A confidence interval refers to the chances of population data falling into the interval estimate. Simply put, a 99 percent confidence interval refers to the prediction that there is 99 percent chance of a particular projection happening. The aforementioned AI does its projection based on a 97, 99, and 100 percent interval.
Its prediction for Singapore is that we have a 97% chance of the virus ending on 10 May, a 99% chance of it ending on 17 May, and a 100% chance that we will be COVID-free on the 19 June. If that is really true, then we should all be able to rejoice and prepare to resume life as we know it once the Extended Circuit Breaker ends.
Our neighbouring nation is expected to have a 97% chance of seeing COVID-19 end on 7 May, a 99% chance on 20 May, and a complete eradication on 8 July.
Even though the USA has been struggling with the large number of daily cases, it nonetheless has a 97% chance of seeing an end to the coronavirus on 16 May, a 99% chance on 29 May, but a 100% chance only on 13 September.
Being one of the worst-hit countries so far, it’s unsurprising that Italy is only expected to see a 100% end to the virus on 10 October. They are, however, predicted to have a 97% chance of beating the virus for good on 17 May, and a 99% chance on 4 June.
While the aforementioned countries are thought to have already reached their peaks, other nations like Qatar seem to have a long battle that awaits them. As case numbers are still in their infancy, Qatar is predicted to have a theoretical ending only on 9 March 2021—nearly a good year from now.
Considering that Qatar is amongst the world’s aviation giants, I really wonder how that will pan out for their economy and fiscal health for the rest of 2020.
If you’re curious to find out more about the predictions in other countries, you can always do so here. Due to the volatile nature of projections, they may sway according to real time data fluctuations. As such, the data reflected in this post might be subjected to change. Daily real time updates are available on SUTD site, for your perusal.
Do you think that the estimates will prove to be true? Why or why not?
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